Israel and Iran: Where Are We Now?
Iran's been almost timid up to this point. Will it stay that way?
First, I’d like to welcome all the new subscribers from Naked Capitalism and ZeroHedge. I hope you’re inspired to join in the discussion in this and future posts.
Second, in lieu of today’s scheduled piece, I’d like to offer some thoughts on the latest news, which is, if you haven’t heard, that Israel has “pre-emptively” attacked Iran, targeting its nuclear facilities and killing many of its leaders and scientists. The attack included missiles and drones launched from unspecified locations.
Some or all of the Iranian leaders killed were attacked by drones, which caused additional collateral damage and death.
From the BBC’s live update page as of this writing (the news is evolving quickly, as you might expect):
Israel attacks Iran's nuclear programme with wave of strikes killing military chiefs and scientists
Summary
Israel's military says Iran fired about 100 drones towards its territory, many of which were intercepted, after Israel carried out waves of strikes on Iran overnight
The IDF says it carried out strikes on nuclear sites and says Revolutionary Guard chief Hossein Salami and other commanders have been killed
Iran says six scientists have been killed, with state TV reporting that civilians, including children are among the dead – this has not been independently verified
Analysis from our correspondents: Israel has taken a huge gamble, writes Frank Gardner, and there are indications more attacks are being planned, says Paul Adams
Iran has accused the US of supporting Israel's attack, which the US strongly denies. President Trump said he was aware of the strikes beforehand but emphasised the US played no part
Additionally, NBC is now reporting:
IRAN RETALIATES: Iran has launched more than 100 drones towards Israel in the past few hours, IDF Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said in a statement, the first sign of retaliation to Israel’s attacks.
Obviously this is a breaking story with much more to be told and learned.
Why Now?
Why is this happening, the attack? And why now?
Explanation 1: Trump is trying to make peace, so Israel’s goal is to sabotage that attempt — talks with Iran were scheduled for this coming Sunday. Israel wants to try to force the U.S., against its will, to join in a war of its own creation. This makes the U.S. a kind of Israeli victim, a role it seems historically comfortable playing.
Explanation 2: Since Trump knew of the attack ahead of time (see above), he allowed talk of meetings to go on in order to help lull Iran into not expecting to be attacked so soon. This makes the U.S. complicit.
The following, from Trump, seems to support explanation 2:
It doesn’t say he joined in. But he certainly approved.
The Kurilla Factor
The name of Gen. Michael Kurilla, CENTCOM commander, has come up in these pages, most recently in comments by retired Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, a military and geostrategic commentator, in which Kurilla was positioned as against war with Iran.
I wrote about that interview here. A slice:
Wilkerson: …I’m told with great confidence in the sources that the latest two visits by the Central Command Unified Commander were to tell him [Netanyahu] that we would not be with him in the event of his going to war with Hezbollah that he provoked. Nor will we be with him going to war with Iran that he provoked. And we made it quite clear that we would know if he provoked it.
Napolitano: You're speaking of General Kurilla [CENTCOM commander since April 2022].
Wilkerson: Yes. Yes.
Napolitano: So Scott Ritter agrees with you, Doug Macgregor says he can’t imagine Austin and Blinkin letting General Kuralla do that. It’s very very interesting. ... Is this speculation on your part or is it based on sources?
Wilkerson: It’s based on some pretty reliable sources. …
Turns out, Wilkerson’s sources may have been wrong. There’s other reporting that indicates Kurilla is quite the hawk:
For those unfamiliar, Mark Levin is a stone-cold neocon. Enjeti is one of the hosts of Breaking Points and a reliable source of right-world information. His source could be wrong (as Wilkerson’s may have been), but he’s not making this up.
Kurilla’s set to retire this summer, after the confirmation of Trump and Hegseth’s pick to replace him, Vice Adm. Brad Cooper.
Will Adm. Cooper Be Even More Hawkish?
It’s worth noting that Adm. Cooper is considered even more hawkish than the man whose chair he’ll soon have. From Newsweek earlier this month:
If confirmed, Adm. Cooper will succeed commander General Michael Kurilla, who is due to retire this summer. Kurilla, with an army background, has also been strongly critical of Iran.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has endorsed Cooper over Army General James Mingus, the presumed frontrunner, shifting away from Biden administration preferences, The Washington Post reported in April.
A fierce critic of Iran's activities in the Middle East, Cooper has repeatedly identified it as a threats to regional security, navigation, and stability. As commander of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, he played a central role in Operation Prosperity Guardian, the U.S.-led multinational mission safeguarding Red Sea shipping lanes from Houthi missile and drone attacks from 2023.
Where Does This Leave Us?
All this leaves the world wondering what may be next.
A lot depends on Iran and its reaction. Commentators have criticized Iran for its caution in response to Israeli attacks, both against Hezbollah and itself. The source of that caution is apparently the 86 year old Ayatollah Khamenei himself (see also here and here).
If Iran remains cautious, it’s possible Israel will attempt to pick it to pieces, slowly, over time, normalizing attacks against it as it has normalized attacks against Lebanon.
If Iran is not cautious, however, and takes a lesson from the fates of Iraq and Libya (which had no WMDs and got torn apart) and North Korea (which does and is left alone), it will make nukes as fast as it can to protect itself.
It will also counterattack, this time with force. That will, of course, lead to a wider war. But the choice faced by Iran is like the choice faced by the anti-ICE protesters: surrender and be beaten up, or attack and be beaten up. If the radical youth of Iran and the IRCG have had enough, count on the second result, and a much wider fight.
Did Someone Say Israel Has Nukes?
Yes, Israel has nukes. The question is, what is its nuclear policy? Nobody knows.
If Iran really wanted to, in a conventional war they could wipe the floor with Israel. They’re massive, educated, modern and well-armed. And note the area circled in red above. That’s the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s major choke points for oil and gas transport. Iran could close it in an hour.
Which leaves us with two last questions:
If Israel were reduced to rubble by Iranian missiles, would it launch its nukes in farewell, a Hannibal Directive goodbye to all of the world — as in, if we go down, we’re taking the rest of you with us?
If the West were joined in an all-out attack on Iran, what would China do? They would not stand by.
Did US okay the Israeli assault? Well, Trump knew in advance, but he didn’t tell Netanyahu — who has been hankering for this move for three decades — to stop or else there would be consequences for the American-Israeli alliance. And he didn’t more gently say Netanyahu should reconsider. So, no red light, and no yellow light. That leaves only one color. The we had nothing to do with this excuse holds no water.
Our leaders have proven themselves competent with how they have dealt with man made climate change and the response to the worldwide COVID pandemic. We have nothing to fear.