Genocide is what genocide does, same with the integrity of nation states. Annexing a neighbor is an "invasion" by any other name, whether Russia or Israel.
“These rightists have been serving as cannon fodder on the front (recall Azov in Mariupol, for example)”… actually, the rightist battalions have more often been used as “stiffeners,” i.e. an anti-retreat force positioned in the rear to shoot frontline conscripts who flee their position. Mariupol was a genuine blow to Azov, but it was not a meatgrinder; Azov holed up and eventually surrendered to become (temporarily) POWs. Many rightists were lost in key battles, like Bakhmut, it is true, but overall it has been conscripts drawn predominantly from Russian-speaking oblasts in the east who have been slaughtered in the meat-grinder front. Moreover, the mass conscription campaign has for the most part spared the Ukrainian-speaking areas that are bulwarks of right-wing and Ukrainian nationalist sentiment. This is not accidental.
The 3rd alternative is Polish troops entering the rump state of Ukraine when Russian troops reach the Dnieper , acting as an individual state not as part of NATO, ostensibly to protect Ukraine. There would be some friction, as Poland wants acknowledgement of the 1940's morder of 100,000 Poles by Ukrainian nationalists, but Poland has historical involvement in the area. There woud also be possible moves to prevent Russia from taking over Odessa, which is next door to the huge military bases in Rumania.
1. Nobody, nobody on Washington, nobody in Brussels, nobody in Kiev cares how many Ukrainians die, as long as their deaths somehow incovenience a Russian person somewhere.
You think a farmer gives a rat's ass about the lives and comfort of his battery chickens? They're just stock to be used, nothing more.
2. "Tony Blinken might want to. But Lloyd Austin? And what of the American people, to the extent they have a say?"
Nobody cares what the American people think either. This is why escalation will only take place after the election, when the voters will no longer have an opportunity to make this a referendum on WWIII.
TL:DR We've seen premature declarations of victory several times in this war. But the rulers of the West will not hesitate to annhilate us all, rather than lose their perches.
I mean they also want to pull Zelensky's Uriah Gambit on domestic enemies. The problem is they cannot shut up about how much they hate (deplorables) or look down on (urban poor) the parts of the country who volunteered for the War on Terror and were subsequently betrayed. Now recruiting is in the toilet. Why do you think there is all this talk of a draft now?
Hermann Goering had some practical insight into the matter.
"Why, of course, the people don't want war," Goering shrugged. "Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship."
"There is one difference," I pointed out. "In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars."
"Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."
I mean that is what they did last time and screwed it up. During the War on Terror young men signed up to "shove a boot up Al Queda's ass" and they were willing to risk their own lives to do so. I know. I was almost one of them. Lucky for me I fell for the "you have to go to college out of high school or you will forever be poor" scam. The "Slava Ukraini" types love cheering on this war like it is a football game but I don't see any of them being the kind to walk into a recruiting office if you know what I mean. They expect other people to do that.
Genocide is what genocide does, same with the integrity of nation states. Annexing a neighbor is an "invasion" by any other name, whether Russia or Israel.
Fascinating discussion. The quality of comment here is good. Thanks for all the thoughts.
Thomas
“These rightists have been serving as cannon fodder on the front (recall Azov in Mariupol, for example)”… actually, the rightist battalions have more often been used as “stiffeners,” i.e. an anti-retreat force positioned in the rear to shoot frontline conscripts who flee their position. Mariupol was a genuine blow to Azov, but it was not a meatgrinder; Azov holed up and eventually surrendered to become (temporarily) POWs. Many rightists were lost in key battles, like Bakhmut, it is true, but overall it has been conscripts drawn predominantly from Russian-speaking oblasts in the east who have been slaughtered in the meat-grinder front. Moreover, the mass conscription campaign has for the most part spared the Ukrainian-speaking areas that are bulwarks of right-wing and Ukrainian nationalist sentiment. This is not accidental.
The 3rd alternative is Polish troops entering the rump state of Ukraine when Russian troops reach the Dnieper , acting as an individual state not as part of NATO, ostensibly to protect Ukraine. There would be some friction, as Poland wants acknowledgement of the 1940's morder of 100,000 Poles by Ukrainian nationalists, but Poland has historical involvement in the area. There woud also be possible moves to prevent Russia from taking over Odessa, which is next door to the huge military bases in Rumania.
1. Nobody, nobody on Washington, nobody in Brussels, nobody in Kiev cares how many Ukrainians die, as long as their deaths somehow incovenience a Russian person somewhere.
You think a farmer gives a rat's ass about the lives and comfort of his battery chickens? They're just stock to be used, nothing more.
2. "Tony Blinken might want to. But Lloyd Austin? And what of the American people, to the extent they have a say?"
Nobody cares what the American people think either. This is why escalation will only take place after the election, when the voters will no longer have an opportunity to make this a referendum on WWIII.
TL:DR We've seen premature declarations of victory several times in this war. But the rulers of the West will not hesitate to annhilate us all, rather than lose their perches.
I mean they also want to pull Zelensky's Uriah Gambit on domestic enemies. The problem is they cannot shut up about how much they hate (deplorables) or look down on (urban poor) the parts of the country who volunteered for the War on Terror and were subsequently betrayed. Now recruiting is in the toilet. Why do you think there is all this talk of a draft now?
Hermann Goering had some practical insight into the matter.
"Why, of course, the people don't want war," Goering shrugged. "Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship."
"There is one difference," I pointed out. "In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars."
"Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."
One source for this quote:
https://www.mit.edu/people/fuller/peace/war_goering.html
Thomas
I mean that is what they did last time and screwed it up. During the War on Terror young men signed up to "shove a boot up Al Queda's ass" and they were willing to risk their own lives to do so. I know. I was almost one of them. Lucky for me I fell for the "you have to go to college out of high school or you will forever be poor" scam. The "Slava Ukraini" types love cheering on this war like it is a football game but I don't see any of them being the kind to walk into a recruiting office if you know what I mean. They expect other people to do that.
Well, the rulers will organize a Reichstag Fire if need be.