Among its manifest failures: the state vs. federal system in the United States.
Mr. Neuberger lumps everyone into generic categories: right, left, boogaloo whatever but this is both irrelevant and orthogonal from an analysis perspective.
A far more likely outcome is an acceleration of state deviation from each other and federal norms. The "liberal" state rebellions against federal marijuana rules and CBP actions is now being matched by "conservative" state rebellions against COVID mandates and other actions, for example.
The reality of the United States is that the states are the entities which actually administer and operate the vast majority of what everyday Americans depend on; the federal government exists through control of issuance of the US dollar domestically and abroad and is largely irrelevant to the average American.
This leads to the second major oversight of Mr. Neuberger's analysis: the international geopolitical situation. The United States military is so enormous primarily because of the Washington Consensus: the US dollar as trade reserve currency; the petrodollar standard; the many international institutions starting with the World Bank and IMF in which the US controls the institution both by composition and by literal veto power enshrined in said institutions.
The reality here is that - for various reasons including top level US geopolitical actions - the world is decoupling from the US and the US dollar. Not decoupling in the sanctions sense - although that is a part - decoupling because there is growing recognition that there are no net benefits from subservience to the Washington Consensus if you are a 2nd or 3rd world nation. The Washington Consensus continues to coast from its Post World War 2, US dominance of the world economy, but the US no longer dominates the world economy in any real sense outside of the aforementioned US dollar-related areas.
And so we have an unstable US federal government which is facing structural decline but is composed of bureaucrats and apparatchiks of both established parties, which is divorced from the average American and acts/thinks like an oligarchy coupled with real migration patterns accentuating existing state level differences.
It seems to me that this is more an Austro-Hungarian/Ottoman/Qing empire decline situation than the Decline of Rome so beloved of the overt academics.
For a third world country, the net benefit to subservience to the Washington Consensus is that you don't get turned into a failed state on basis of lies.
I have watched with horrifying fascination America's descent for decades. In Australia we have a two party system much as you do in the States. The main difference is that our two major parties are present in the US as one party; the Democrats. We have, fortunately, no equivalent to the Republicans. We have a welter of small, very right wing groups but no organised ultra-right populist party like the Republicans. Perhaps another outcome would be for the Democrats to fracture into one progressive party and one moderate party who could battle it out with the lunacy the Republicans represent.
Thanks for this. I do think there is one very good option for the Left: boycott elections and encourage strikes especially in industries serving the rich.
If we're going to get slaughtered at the polls next November, why even bother? The only thing that can stop the DNC's kakocracy would be a massive and humiliating defeat that would result in the oligarchs redirecting the cash flow that supports Democrat incompetence.
Strikes have the power to change a lot of things very quickly. It's being widely noted that Biden is terrified of shutting the country down to contain the pandemic out of fear that the economy would collapse. A general strike would accomplish that.
What would happen to our cities would be cruel and harrowing, but govt would have to step in or those cities would become unsafe for the rich who despite their castles in New Zealand thrive on high culture and fine dining. Already I think some of the super rich are rethinking the cost of always winning.
Thanks, Jim. A lot of outcomes are possible if the rich don't stand down. A war with Russia, for no reason than that they want it, is one of them.
I just watched The Sum of All Fears last night. That movie would end differently today — the aria "Nessum dorma" would be sung as bombs exploded over Moscow.
Agree with your bleak assessment. However, there is even a darker possibility. The US Security State could blunder into a war with Russia, which we would lose leaving a lot of devastation with no functioning govt. This has happened many times before.
The professional managerial class have abandoned anything even remotely revolutionary, because they now are the establishment.
Interesting exposition but very flawed.
Among its manifest failures: the state vs. federal system in the United States.
Mr. Neuberger lumps everyone into generic categories: right, left, boogaloo whatever but this is both irrelevant and orthogonal from an analysis perspective.
A far more likely outcome is an acceleration of state deviation from each other and federal norms. The "liberal" state rebellions against federal marijuana rules and CBP actions is now being matched by "conservative" state rebellions against COVID mandates and other actions, for example.
The reality of the United States is that the states are the entities which actually administer and operate the vast majority of what everyday Americans depend on; the federal government exists through control of issuance of the US dollar domestically and abroad and is largely irrelevant to the average American.
This leads to the second major oversight of Mr. Neuberger's analysis: the international geopolitical situation. The United States military is so enormous primarily because of the Washington Consensus: the US dollar as trade reserve currency; the petrodollar standard; the many international institutions starting with the World Bank and IMF in which the US controls the institution both by composition and by literal veto power enshrined in said institutions.
The reality here is that - for various reasons including top level US geopolitical actions - the world is decoupling from the US and the US dollar. Not decoupling in the sanctions sense - although that is a part - decoupling because there is growing recognition that there are no net benefits from subservience to the Washington Consensus if you are a 2nd or 3rd world nation. The Washington Consensus continues to coast from its Post World War 2, US dominance of the world economy, but the US no longer dominates the world economy in any real sense outside of the aforementioned US dollar-related areas.
And so we have an unstable US federal government which is facing structural decline but is composed of bureaucrats and apparatchiks of both established parties, which is divorced from the average American and acts/thinks like an oligarchy coupled with real migration patterns accentuating existing state level differences.
It seems to me that this is more an Austro-Hungarian/Ottoman/Qing empire decline situation than the Decline of Rome so beloved of the overt academics.
For a third world country, the net benefit to subservience to the Washington Consensus is that you don't get turned into a failed state on basis of lies.
You mean like Haiti? Oh wait, they are a failed state...
What about Ukraine? Russia pre-Putin?
For instance, Libya, Iraq, or Ukraine. The United States is also trying to reduce Syria and Venezuela to "failed state" status.
And yes, the United States was doing its level damnedest to turn Russia into a failed state before circumstances intervened.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/02/how-misguided-grant-strategy-led-to-the-us-defeat.html#more
I have watched with horrifying fascination America's descent for decades. In Australia we have a two party system much as you do in the States. The main difference is that our two major parties are present in the US as one party; the Democrats. We have, fortunately, no equivalent to the Republicans. We have a welter of small, very right wing groups but no organised ultra-right populist party like the Republicans. Perhaps another outcome would be for the Democrats to fracture into one progressive party and one moderate party who could battle it out with the lunacy the Republicans represent.
TN, really a well thought through piece. Refreshingly veracious in an era of deceit and betrayal.
Chicago school (Hyak, Friedman), neoliberal financialization is leaving a raging wound worldwide (a trail of tears; both kinds).
To what lengths will it's purveyors go? Like you, I believe nature will have the last at bat. The only remaining question is "what inning are we in?"
Stay well,
JC
Thanks for this. I do think there is one very good option for the Left: boycott elections and encourage strikes especially in industries serving the rich.
If we're going to get slaughtered at the polls next November, why even bother? The only thing that can stop the DNC's kakocracy would be a massive and humiliating defeat that would result in the oligarchs redirecting the cash flow that supports Democrat incompetence.
Strikes have the power to change a lot of things very quickly. It's being widely noted that Biden is terrified of shutting the country down to contain the pandemic out of fear that the economy would collapse. A general strike would accomplish that.
What would happen to our cities would be cruel and harrowing, but govt would have to step in or those cities would become unsafe for the rich who despite their castles in New Zealand thrive on high culture and fine dining. Already I think some of the super rich are rethinking the cost of always winning.
It ain't over til it's over.
Thanks, Jim. A lot of outcomes are possible if the rich don't stand down. A war with Russia, for no reason than that they want it, is one of them.
I just watched The Sum of All Fears last night. That movie would end differently today — the aria "Nessum dorma" would be sung as bombs exploded over Moscow.
Agree with your bleak assessment. However, there is even a darker possibility. The US Security State could blunder into a war with Russia, which we would lose leaving a lot of devastation with no functioning govt. This has happened many times before.
Thanks, Will watch. Perhaps the security state never changes its playbook.