ECS in the first IPCC in 1979 was 1.5 to 4.5 with 3.0 being the guess guess.
IPCC in 1990 increased lower end to 2.0, upper end still 4.5 and best guess still 3.0.
IPCC in 2013 reduced range back to 1.5 but no best guess and many the publications were showing ECS around 2.0.
IPCC in 2021 leveraged a paper by Sherwood which said ECS range from 2.6 to 3.9 but IPCC somehow changed to 2.5 to 4.0 with best guess 3.1 - but it has been conclusively shown that the data used both by IPCC And Sherwood is incorrect. Correct data used both for Sherwood and IPCC results in ECS Range of 1.8 to 2.7 with best guess 2.2. Note this is nothing more than inserting the correct data into what IPCC says is a correct methodology.
Chart's kinda reminiscent of Exxon's own predictions in 1982. And started going exponential, after API's president gave his 1965 "time is running out speech?) As little nerd kids, we were told the Clathrate Gun Hypothesis, slowing Gulf Currents, Polar Vortexes & city-sized methane fireballs percolating out from where permafrost used to be, would happen somewhere between "American Grafitti" and glaciers pushing saber tooth tigers & mastadons down Broadway (after we were dead!) But, then, along came Albright's slick-water hydrofracking & bitumen Ponzi schemes to replace Shell's deep water TLPs, after Katrina. If there were only SOME way to take Russian LNG tankers & pipelines out of the picture?
This subject is deeply contaminated with bias, vested interests, and psychological manipulation.
Drawing such firm and dark conclusions with no further debate has elevated these views to cult status. Disagree and be burned, scorned, cast out as a 'denier'.
It's convenient for the human egoic need for control and recognition to choose the view that it's our activity causing such changes in weather patterns.
The changes go far beyond what we are capable of producing, are solar-system wide and are directly attributable to much larger forcings than computer-based human designed modelling takes into account. The forecasted doom and gloom we have been relentlessly subjected to continues to be revised forward as real empirical data fails to confirm modelled projections, year after year, decade after decade.
There is major calamity coming down the pipe, quite likely, but not due to our doings directly. By focussing on select "approved" facts and ignoring the wider reality of conflicting expert views policy makers and activists are pursuing a very destructive course which will do absolutely nothing to either prepare for what's on it's way or mitigate it.
Real human follies such as ignoring and enabling environmental pollution, monoculture farming with chemicals, inhumane livestock raising in concentrated feeding operations, overfishing and toxic fish-farming, attempts at geo-engineering, using forest/crop biomass for energy (you got that right!), failures to properly recycle plastics and other energy-yielding materials, my gosh the list is long ... are being sidelined and forgotten about in the mad haste to chase the illusion of anthropogenic climate change. We're doing the equivalent of crapping in our nests, ignoring basic responsibilities, while tilting at windmills.
suspicious0bservers.org has oodles of resources, papers cited, expert contributions and references as to the bigger picture.
Dr. John Christy, vilified by the self-obsessed, is a data analyst one mustn't ignore if one is to claim an objective intention in all of this. There are many others. Thank you.
The IPCC has moderated its projections down - did you not see that?
Nor is the assertion of 2.0C being "baked in" very credible since temperatures have already increased 1.8 degrees - source: https://www.c2es.org/content/changes-in-climate/
So the "baked in" is 0.2 degrees? so what
It is clear, Mr. Neuberger, that you are a dilettante in the climate area who is not even cognizant of the data presented by the so-called experts.
What do you mean IPCC has moderated its projections down? Please cite.
You can read a good overview here: https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/once-again-ipccs-math-doesnt-check-out
Summary:
ECS in the first IPCC in 1979 was 1.5 to 4.5 with 3.0 being the guess guess.
IPCC in 1990 increased lower end to 2.0, upper end still 4.5 and best guess still 3.0.
IPCC in 2013 reduced range back to 1.5 but no best guess and many the publications were showing ECS around 2.0.
IPCC in 2021 leveraged a paper by Sherwood which said ECS range from 2.6 to 3.9 but IPCC somehow changed to 2.5 to 4.0 with best guess 3.1 - but it has been conclusively shown that the data used both by IPCC And Sherwood is incorrect. Correct data used both for Sherwood and IPCC results in ECS Range of 1.8 to 2.7 with best guess 2.2. Note this is nothing more than inserting the correct data into what IPCC says is a correct methodology.
Chart's kinda reminiscent of Exxon's own predictions in 1982. And started going exponential, after API's president gave his 1965 "time is running out speech?) As little nerd kids, we were told the Clathrate Gun Hypothesis, slowing Gulf Currents, Polar Vortexes & city-sized methane fireballs percolating out from where permafrost used to be, would happen somewhere between "American Grafitti" and glaciers pushing saber tooth tigers & mastadons down Broadway (after we were dead!) But, then, along came Albright's slick-water hydrofracking & bitumen Ponzi schemes to replace Shell's deep water TLPs, after Katrina. If there were only SOME way to take Russian LNG tankers & pipelines out of the picture?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PGfIjCG-zB4
https://www.sciencealert.com/exxon-expertly-predicted-this-week-s-nightmare-co2-milestone-almost-40-years-ago
https://www.desmog.com/2018/11/20/american-petroleum-institute-1965-speech-climate-change-oil-gas/
https://www.postcarbon.org/david-hughes-shale-reality-check-2019/
Subsequent to the below comment, here is another heretic's take on what continues to be paraded as a 'fact': https://climatediscussionnexus.com/videos/the-97-percent-consensus-myth-revisited/
Modelling is perilous.
This subject is deeply contaminated with bias, vested interests, and psychological manipulation.
Drawing such firm and dark conclusions with no further debate has elevated these views to cult status. Disagree and be burned, scorned, cast out as a 'denier'.
It's convenient for the human egoic need for control and recognition to choose the view that it's our activity causing such changes in weather patterns.
The changes go far beyond what we are capable of producing, are solar-system wide and are directly attributable to much larger forcings than computer-based human designed modelling takes into account. The forecasted doom and gloom we have been relentlessly subjected to continues to be revised forward as real empirical data fails to confirm modelled projections, year after year, decade after decade.
There is major calamity coming down the pipe, quite likely, but not due to our doings directly. By focussing on select "approved" facts and ignoring the wider reality of conflicting expert views policy makers and activists are pursuing a very destructive course which will do absolutely nothing to either prepare for what's on it's way or mitigate it.
Real human follies such as ignoring and enabling environmental pollution, monoculture farming with chemicals, inhumane livestock raising in concentrated feeding operations, overfishing and toxic fish-farming, attempts at geo-engineering, using forest/crop biomass for energy (you got that right!), failures to properly recycle plastics and other energy-yielding materials, my gosh the list is long ... are being sidelined and forgotten about in the mad haste to chase the illusion of anthropogenic climate change. We're doing the equivalent of crapping in our nests, ignoring basic responsibilities, while tilting at windmills.
suspicious0bservers.org has oodles of resources, papers cited, expert contributions and references as to the bigger picture.
Dr. John Christy, vilified by the self-obsessed, is a data analyst one mustn't ignore if one is to claim an objective intention in all of this. There are many others. Thank you.