Global Warming Is Accelerating
Nearly every day since mid-June 2023 has been warmer than any equivalent day since 1958.
I’ve written quite a lot about this lately (for example, here), but it can’t be said enough. Global warming is accelerating. 2023 is the warmest year on record, and by a lot.
The following, by climate writer and scientist Zeke Hausfather, presents the case clearly. First, an explanation of scientists’ new ability to track daily global temperatures:
While global temperature records are not yet in for the full month of October 2023, real-time reanalysis products increasingly allow scientists to track global temperatures on a daily basis.
Reanalysis pulls together a huge amount of data from satellites, weather balloons, aeroplanes, weather stations, ships and buoys to provide a detailed look at how the Earth’s climate is changing in real-time.
Modern reanalysis products, such as JRA-55 and ERA5, use state-of-the-art methods to produce records that align well with traditional surface temperature datasets over recent decades.
Now the results of that data. Note that the start point goes quite a way back, to 1958.
The figure below shows the daily global temperature anomaly values from the JRA-55 reanalysis product for each day since the record began in 1958 (grey lines). It shows the current year to date (2023) in red and the prior record warm year, 2016, in blue. Nearly every single day since mid-June 2023 has been warmer than any prior days since the JRA-55 record began in 1958 – and, potentially, much further into the past. [emphasis added]
This is the figure:
Again, nearly every single day since mid-June 2023 has been warmer than any equivalent day since 1958. That is, this July 1 was the warmest July 1, this July 2 was the warmest July 2, and so on. By a lot.
Warming in the Antarctic
The Antarctic is also in trouble. From climate scientist Zack Labe (whose Twitter feed is a godsend):
More on the Western Antarctic glacier here.
When that ice turns to water, it will add ten feet to global sea level rise. It’s going to be interesting to watch folks figure out how to move New York, and where to move it to. It will also to be interesting to watch as they realize, New York will need to be moved.
You would think at some point someone would seize the wheel from the global leaders steering our global Titanic. But they've locked themselves in the bridge, and the ship still chugs to its destined fatal encounter.
There’s a conclusion to draw from this, about what we should do do. I’ll let you draw it.
Ooh! I know the conclusion for what we should do! Start a war!
The data are bad for the continued state of our favorite (and only) planet to host life as known to us now.
I do not think the suggestion that a winter induced by a large scale nuclear weapon exchange might stave off the inexorable rise of the seas is particularly pleasant to contemplate. But desperate times call for desperate measures but desperate is not necessarily unpleasant.
We collectively in the developed North need to dramatically lower our daily energy use. One area that holds promising low hanging fruit is personal transportation. Forget about electric vehicles, start riding a bicycle. Real research should be devoted to the development of human powered vehicles.
Before you are tempted to sneer at the idea of cycling, consider that honestly we need to start localizing our lives. Our planet cannot afford commercial aviation and far flung delivery on demand.
Sucking up aquifers developed over geologic time to provide fossil fuels for extravagant life styles that are unparalleled in human history is beyond crazy!
We need to help Mother Nature by preserving fresh water and to stop using her atmosphere as a sewer.
Dramatic conservation and the curtailment of corporate capitalism are two fundamental steps to take starting now. There is no other alternative.