I live at the foot of the Catskill and Shawangunk Mountain ranges in the southern part of Upstate New York. There has already been some migration here from NYC due to COVID. Where people will settle from Long Island and the five boroughs is hopefully a problem I wont face. What areas will not be awash may still be uninhabitable due to salt water intrusion into the ground water. I think that most of New Jersey will be at risk from flooding or ground water contamination.
Planning for an ominous future needs consideration. Harboring resources for this long term emergency needs to start. Every dollar sunk into our military industrial complex wastes our capacity to prepare for what comes.
It won't take 10 feet of sea level rise to be a catastrophe to cities and nations; 3 feet is more than enough to constitute a "catastrophe". And the nations are planning for it, by building up their militaries, so they can squash the inevitable riots and societal collapse when our economies and food sources collapse along with the rising water.
Unlikely that coastal areas will descend it disorder. The fundamental of all territory is the value of land in various ways from power to money. As the trend in levels rising becomes more concrete then even in simplistic monetary terms property will lose its value and in a reversal of normal growth people will stop flowing in to replace those flowing out. Decline will set in and there will be a natural shift to higher ground. Of course it will be the poorest who remain until the end but the infrastructure of production and growth will already have moved and it will depend on the poor following it, which is also a predictable trend.
Exactly, Janet. No one anticipates the erosion that moves coastlines backward, even if they're technically above the level of the sea. Doesn't take much water to erase a coast.
New York's fate is depicted in Kim Stanley robinson's sci-fi book, NewYork 2140.
Add another meaning for the term "sunk costs"!
I live at the foot of the Catskill and Shawangunk Mountain ranges in the southern part of Upstate New York. There has already been some migration here from NYC due to COVID. Where people will settle from Long Island and the five boroughs is hopefully a problem I wont face. What areas will not be awash may still be uninhabitable due to salt water intrusion into the ground water. I think that most of New Jersey will be at risk from flooding or ground water contamination.
Planning for an ominous future needs consideration. Harboring resources for this long term emergency needs to start. Every dollar sunk into our military industrial complex wastes our capacity to prepare for what comes.
Exactly. Especially the last two sentences.
Thomas
It won't take 10 feet of sea level rise to be a catastrophe to cities and nations; 3 feet is more than enough to constitute a "catastrophe". And the nations are planning for it, by building up their militaries, so they can squash the inevitable riots and societal collapse when our economies and food sources collapse along with the rising water.
Unlikely that coastal areas will descend it disorder. The fundamental of all territory is the value of land in various ways from power to money. As the trend in levels rising becomes more concrete then even in simplistic monetary terms property will lose its value and in a reversal of normal growth people will stop flowing in to replace those flowing out. Decline will set in and there will be a natural shift to higher ground. Of course it will be the poorest who remain until the end but the infrastructure of production and growth will already have moved and it will depend on the poor following it, which is also a predictable trend.
Agree in general, Alex. Have you considered the cumulative effect of this happening essentially everywhere at the same time? Just a thought.
Thomas
Exactly, Janet. No one anticipates the erosion that moves coastlines backward, even if they're technically above the level of the sea. Doesn't take much water to erase a coast.
BTW, I covered that here:
https://neuburger.substack.com/p/our-disappearing-shoreline
Thomas
N.b. the US military is by far the largest emitter of greenhouse gasses on the planet.