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Phil Ebersole's avatar

You set up two very interesting thought experiments.

I think one important thing to keep in mind here was that the white people who opposed slavery on moral grounds were a minority of the opponents of slavery. The real conflict arose from the unwillingness of white working people to compete with slave labor. And from the inherent conflict between an economy based on Industrial manufacturing and one based on plantation labor.

Suppose the proposed Constitution had

The political history of the young Union was dominated by conflict over whether newly-settled territories would become slave states or free states. This was the issue that precipitated the Civil War. Abraham Lincoln was unwilling to admit new slave states to the Union. That was unacceptable to most of the South.

Among the 13 states in the Articles of Confederation, seven had abolished slavery by 1860 and six still clung to it. I assume the states would have divided seven-six if the proposed Constitution had omitted the three-fifths clause, the fugitive slave clause and the time-limited protection of the slave trade.

So instead of a united federal republic, you would have had two competing federations and/or alliances competing for empire in the West. There would have been war - maybe many wars - between the two federations and/or alliances. Nor would there have been any principle of unity that would have prevented, say, Texas or California from becoming independent nations that existed to this day.

Alternatively, there might not have been a Louisiana Purchase or a successful Mexican War. British and Spanish power may have persisted longer than they did.

Suppose Abraham Lincoln had refused to use force to keep the seceding Southern states in the Union.

This could have been a blessing in disguise for the Union states. Freed of Southern influence, the Union states would have been free to enact all the reforms that had been blocked prior to the Civil War - the Homestead Act, the Land Grant College Act, subsidies for transcontinental railroads, tariffs to protect infant industries.

And slavery would have been blocked from spreading to U.S. territories, which was the principle Lincoln was elected on. But there would have been no Emancipation Proclamation and no Thirteenth, Fourteenth and Fifteenth amendments to the Constitution.

Another result would have been the precedent that state governments have a right to secede. There would have been no principle of national unity that ruled later and future secessions illegitimate.

You mentioned the possibility of slave revolts, as in Haiti. I doubt these could have been successful. Even where white people were outnumber, they still had a vast superiority in firepower.

Maybe we're not in the worst possible timeline, although it sometimes seems that way.

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Mark Gisleson's avatar

I believe one of two things would have happened. Either northern capitalists would have continued to trade with the South, strengthening the Confederacy while undermining northern workers, or, barring govt interference, Abolitionists would have triggered slave revolts throughout the South.

If the latter, I strongly suspect this would have threatened northern capitalists who would have either triggered a second Civil War to quash the slave rebellion "on our shores" or worse, realigned with white southerners to conduct a race war. Either way I believe the long term would have been much worse than the present situation.

The best alternative would have been organizing white labor to halt the importation of slaves. It would have been ugly and racist, but it might have led to our govt helping to end the Middle Passage and overthrow slave-holding nations throughout the hemisphere.

But wishing for a successful workers revolt is a bit like wishing for Santa Claus. Slavery remains the US's 'peculiar institution' and we are still in its thrall. Electing a Kenyan-American as President was false hope, just like our new Vice President, a Jamaican South Asian Canadian woman. They have tasted the aftermath of our peculiar institution, but are not ADOS (an acronym more significant than BLM but studiously ignored by the media).

A provocative read. Thank you. For some reason it woke my head up instead of churning my gut like most of the news does of late : )

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