Without ever having had a GNP there is a great probability none of this might occur.
However what you are not mentioning is a massive increase in seismic activity in recent years and with increased pressures of the expanding seas will probably continue. There could end up being not just sunken land mass but entire land mass realignment.
It is, at present, not within human expertise to know exactly what this all means, and I haven't seen any computerized simulations but they could give us nothing but what has been input. Most people don't seem to imagine such probabilities, but one might study how mountain ranges develop, and might one consider how the Atlantic current that warms Europe actually developed and how the plate activity does not necessarily only "crack", but how they can slam into one another.
So back to GNP, the greater the GNP grows the greater the likelihood of tectonic realignment.
We might need to begin to consider that survival will be dependent upon our ability to decrease our standard of living.
> However what you are not mentioning is a massive increase in seismic activity in recent years and with increased pressures of the expanding seas will probably continue. There could end up being not just sunken land mass but entire land mass realignment.
Interesting thought, Ken. Are there links for this?
Im resigned to the fact that I will probably die in a global civilization collapse within a few decades. I can't stop it, so I am just trying to enjoy the time I have left.
I have been concerned about climate change for a long time cause I know how fragile our current ecosystem actually is and have observed the changes over the last 20 years. All the bugs are gone. Some of the climate activist writers I read literally gave up and threw in the towel earlier this year because the data is clear that we are fucked. AI is a hail Mary to try and save us from ourselves, but by the time the crops start failing globally in the 2050s and the water wars begin it will be all over. Pockets of humanity will survive, but most of us will not. It is what it is.
Now we know why “Ukraine” is so gosh-darned important to the EU. If the Île de France is about to morph into enjoying the growing season of northern Québec they’re going to need a bit more farmland. Soon it seems.
Remarkable synthesis of the AMOC tipping point dynamics. Your analogy to death as a framing device for climate collapse strikes precisely at the psychological barrier most people face when confronting systemic breakdown. Rahmstorf's timeframe of 2035-2050 for passing the irreversible threshold aligns with recent modeling, though what stands out is the silent nature of these transition points. We won't necesarily see a dramatic event marking the moment when thermohaline circulation becomes destabilized beyond recovery. The gradual slowing has been documented at roughly 15% since the mid-twentieth century, but the nonlinear dynamics mean the shift from weakening to complete shutdown could accelarate rapidly once critical freshwater dilution thresholds are crossed. Your point about model conservatism deserves more emphasis becuase virtually every major prediction from the past two decades has underestimated the speed of change, from arctic ice loss to permafrost thaw rates. The real question becomes whether northern European infrastructure and agriculture can adapt to a 10-15 degree Celsius winter cooling over just a few decades once the AMOC collapses.
“A lot of discussion is, how should agriculture prepare for this. But a collapse of the AMOC is a going-out-of-business scenario for European agriculture. You cannot adapt to this.” - Peter Ditlevsen, Niels Bohr Institute
Salting the AMOC in order to revive it (from the incursion of fresh water) is a major theme of Kim Stanley Robinson's Capital trilogy about climate change, especially in the 2004 Forty Signs of Rain. Fun trilogy featuring DC and northeast US. He also includes it in his Ministry for the Future.
The West has one cash crop: money. Many toil for its production, few capture the output. Those few extract anything that one can price.
Since Nature cannot be priced -- why should those few worry? Well, I think they do worry. It is their little secret. They are buying everything possible hoping to forestall the inevitable.
Well the only good thing may be the 45% of GNP.
Without ever having had a GNP there is a great probability none of this might occur.
However what you are not mentioning is a massive increase in seismic activity in recent years and with increased pressures of the expanding seas will probably continue. There could end up being not just sunken land mass but entire land mass realignment.
It is, at present, not within human expertise to know exactly what this all means, and I haven't seen any computerized simulations but they could give us nothing but what has been input. Most people don't seem to imagine such probabilities, but one might study how mountain ranges develop, and might one consider how the Atlantic current that warms Europe actually developed and how the plate activity does not necessarily only "crack", but how they can slam into one another.
So back to GNP, the greater the GNP grows the greater the likelihood of tectonic realignment.
We might need to begin to consider that survival will be dependent upon our ability to decrease our standard of living.
> However what you are not mentioning is a massive increase in seismic activity in recent years and with increased pressures of the expanding seas will probably continue. There could end up being not just sunken land mass but entire land mass realignment.
Interesting thought, Ken. Are there links for this?
Here are a few. https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/tsunamis/tsunami-generation-earthquakes/jetstream-max-plate-tectonics-and-earthquakes#:~:text=At%20convergent%20boundaries%2C%20plates%20are,coast%20of%20the%20Pacific%20Northwest.
https://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/dynamic.html
https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/new-madrid-seismic-zone#:~:text=In%20the%20New%20Madrid%20region%2C%20the%20earthquakes%20dramatically%20affected%20the,in%20the%20Mississippi%20River%20floodplain.
https://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/historical.html
https://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/historical.html
https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/human-structures-slowing-earths-spin
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a65374656/dams-pole-movement/
https://phys.org/news/2025-12-hundreds-iceberg-earthquakes-crumbling-antarctica.html
https://www.uaf.edu/news/archives/news-archives-2010-2021/melting-glaciers-contribute-to-alaska-earthquakes.php
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425723004868
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10744421
https://www.earthdate.org/episodes/human-induced-earthquakes#:~:text=As%20stress%20builds%20up%2C%20the,just%20now%20coming%20to%20understand.
https://warnercnr.source.colostate.edu/climate-change-earthquake-frequency/
Im resigned to the fact that I will probably die in a global civilization collapse within a few decades. I can't stop it, so I am just trying to enjoy the time I have left.
Good one, Andy. That's all we can do anyway, barring a truly effective fix. Mourn the lost and live as well as we can.
Thomas
I have been concerned about climate change for a long time cause I know how fragile our current ecosystem actually is and have observed the changes over the last 20 years. All the bugs are gone. Some of the climate activist writers I read literally gave up and threw in the towel earlier this year because the data is clear that we are fucked. AI is a hail Mary to try and save us from ourselves, but by the time the crops start failing globally in the 2050s and the water wars begin it will be all over. Pockets of humanity will survive, but most of us will not. It is what it is.
Now we know why “Ukraine” is so gosh-darned important to the EU. If the Île de France is about to morph into enjoying the growing season of northern Québec they’re going to need a bit more farmland. Soon it seems.
Interesting point
Remarkable synthesis of the AMOC tipping point dynamics. Your analogy to death as a framing device for climate collapse strikes precisely at the psychological barrier most people face when confronting systemic breakdown. Rahmstorf's timeframe of 2035-2050 for passing the irreversible threshold aligns with recent modeling, though what stands out is the silent nature of these transition points. We won't necesarily see a dramatic event marking the moment when thermohaline circulation becomes destabilized beyond recovery. The gradual slowing has been documented at roughly 15% since the mid-twentieth century, but the nonlinear dynamics mean the shift from weakening to complete shutdown could accelarate rapidly once critical freshwater dilution thresholds are crossed. Your point about model conservatism deserves more emphasis becuase virtually every major prediction from the past two decades has underestimated the speed of change, from arctic ice loss to permafrost thaw rates. The real question becomes whether northern European infrastructure and agriculture can adapt to a 10-15 degree Celsius winter cooling over just a few decades once the AMOC collapses.
“A lot of discussion is, how should agriculture prepare for this. But a collapse of the AMOC is a going-out-of-business scenario for European agriculture. You cannot adapt to this.” - Peter Ditlevsen, Niels Bohr Institute
Salting the AMOC in order to revive it (from the incursion of fresh water) is a major theme of Kim Stanley Robinson's Capital trilogy about climate change, especially in the 2004 Forty Signs of Rain. Fun trilogy featuring DC and northeast US. He also includes it in his Ministry for the Future.
Not sure that would work, JL. Thoughts on that? I'm suspicious of all bioengineering "fixes."
The West has one cash crop: money. Many toil for its production, few capture the output. Those few extract anything that one can price.
Since Nature cannot be priced -- why should those few worry? Well, I think they do worry. It is their little secret. They are buying everything possible hoping to forestall the inevitable.
> The West has one cash crop: money.
Beautifully put.