Here in Europe we are already at 1.6 times the global average temperature increase, with 2.3 degrees of warming. Yet worse than that, there are increasing signs that AMOC is reducing flow, destabilising weather systems, and may already be heading for a tipping point - some most recent projections indicate early 2030's for collapse or a flip to a southwards current. We are currently in the middle of a record breaking near-doubling of average rainfall in Europe, with record storm events - 5 high category storms in northern France compared to an average of 1, all suggesting an AMOC turnoff may already be underway.
As most people should know by now, that would mean 8* to 10* lower average temperatures in northern Europe, even frozen seas around northern Britain and Norway, along with a collapse in food production, transportation, and economies. The Iceland government has declared an AMOC collapse an 'Existential crisis' and Norway government currently considering the same.
So whilst I agree with getting on with life today, it is also essential to prepare for what might come next,mespecially for us in Europe.
Good points. Europe has been surprisingly warm lately in my experience. Winter highs in the 50s in Paris for example. A flip would be shocking. It would also be devastating, changing the energy-use profile off the charts. With what do you heat homes in England or northern Europe if the winter mimics Montreal?
Thomas, I think that it’s important to define what it means to “live your life well regardless of circumstance.” Until July of 2019 Jeffrey Epstein would have vigorously argued that he was able to “live his life well” even though that involved transactionally exploiting every single person with whom he came into contact for his personal pleasure and enrichment. Yes, “living well” includes material comforts, but the explosion in American billionaires from 66 in 1990 to over 900 in 2025 allows a few oligarchs to live in obscene sumptuousness.
We must begin with the assumption that the climate crisis is a direct result of a planetary carrying capacity crisis caused by the explosion of human lives in simultaneous being from 2.5 billion when I was born in the mid-1950’s to 8.25 billion today and 9 billion by 2035. This is not simply down to the “wrong” people having “too many children” — more children are surviving infancy and more of us are living much longer than the life expectancy 70 years ago. Is the “solution” euthanizing old people and more Gazas? I find both options morally repugnant (and a threat to my personal safety).
I propose the revival of an old definition of “living well” — Don’t do to others that which would be repugnant if done to you. The climate crisis is real and no person, rich or poor, will ultimately evade the consequences. Let’s all try to make the end as painless as it can be, for as many of our fellow human beings as possible.
Thanks for the clear-headed analysis and update, Thomas. I've only recently realized myself how most of the worst and likely projections have been downplayed. +2 by ~2030 already seems baked in.
Here in Europe we are already at 1.6 times the global average temperature increase, with 2.3 degrees of warming. Yet worse than that, there are increasing signs that AMOC is reducing flow, destabilising weather systems, and may already be heading for a tipping point - some most recent projections indicate early 2030's for collapse or a flip to a southwards current. We are currently in the middle of a record breaking near-doubling of average rainfall in Europe, with record storm events - 5 high category storms in northern France compared to an average of 1, all suggesting an AMOC turnoff may already be underway.
As most people should know by now, that would mean 8* to 10* lower average temperatures in northern Europe, even frozen seas around northern Britain and Norway, along with a collapse in food production, transportation, and economies. The Iceland government has declared an AMOC collapse an 'Existential crisis' and Norway government currently considering the same.
So whilst I agree with getting on with life today, it is also essential to prepare for what might come next,mespecially for us in Europe.
Good points. Europe has been surprisingly warm lately in my experience. Winter highs in the 50s in Paris for example. A flip would be shocking. It would also be devastating, changing the energy-use profile off the charts. With what do you heat homes in England or northern Europe if the winter mimics Montreal?
Thomas, I think that it’s important to define what it means to “live your life well regardless of circumstance.” Until July of 2019 Jeffrey Epstein would have vigorously argued that he was able to “live his life well” even though that involved transactionally exploiting every single person with whom he came into contact for his personal pleasure and enrichment. Yes, “living well” includes material comforts, but the explosion in American billionaires from 66 in 1990 to over 900 in 2025 allows a few oligarchs to live in obscene sumptuousness.
We must begin with the assumption that the climate crisis is a direct result of a planetary carrying capacity crisis caused by the explosion of human lives in simultaneous being from 2.5 billion when I was born in the mid-1950’s to 8.25 billion today and 9 billion by 2035. This is not simply down to the “wrong” people having “too many children” — more children are surviving infancy and more of us are living much longer than the life expectancy 70 years ago. Is the “solution” euthanizing old people and more Gazas? I find both options morally repugnant (and a threat to my personal safety).
I propose the revival of an old definition of “living well” — Don’t do to others that which would be repugnant if done to you. The climate crisis is real and no person, rich or poor, will ultimately evade the consequences. Let’s all try to make the end as painless as it can be, for as many of our fellow human beings as possible.
Thanks for the clear-headed analysis and update, Thomas. I've only recently realized myself how most of the worst and likely projections have been downplayed. +2 by ~2030 already seems baked in.